Stretching the Duck: How rising temperatures will change the level and shape of future electricity consumption

Abstract

This paper examines how rising temperature due to climate change will affect the demand for electricity through mid- and end-century. We extend recent literature by directly incorporating adaptation in the form of increased air conditioner penetration into temperature responsiveness and focussing on changes to both the level and timing of future electricity demand. The latter is found to be of greater importance in colder countries, where the level effect is dampened by offsetting reductions in heating demand from warmer winters. Seasonal peaks are projected to shift from winter to summer and the diurnal range of hourly demand expands, exacerbating an increasing need for flexibility coming from the supply side due to a growing share of variable renewable energy.